The BTC Macro Market Cycle
We can see that the current cycle… as predicted if you’ve been in Discord or following on YouTube… I’ve been saying this for almost 2 years now. The current market cycle is following the last one almost exactly… now this can change at any moment and just because the followed the last cycle up until this point dosn’t mean we will keep following it…
But its been following almost exactly for 3 years apart from a bear market rally to 14k (mostly fueled by Facebook libra hype IMO). So I’m going to expect it to keep hitting the same levels until it stops and proves otherwise… does that sound fair enough? So now we’ve got that covered…
Fib Levels
We can see in 2016 the 0.618 fib level was quite important and really triggered the start of the bull run from $770 to $20,000. The same way we interacted with the 0.618 level at 14k in the current cycle, that was also the key break out point that triggered the start of the bull run. Now we have pushed quite hard with some consolidation around the all time high, same as 2016/17 but the wash out wasn’t as aggressive in the current cycle.
Then at the same 2.272 – 2.618 fib levels held as resistance and gave us a consolidation with a throw back to the 1.618 support in 2017 and also in our current cycle. You can see the 1.618 held as support at 29k which put in the bottom of our current consolidation, I used this macro fib level to help give support for my longer term entry at 29k.
That and the 4hr bullish divergence and the daily P-Block combined for a great confluence set up.
So after all this break down… What’s next?
Next Key Levels
The next key level where we hit resistance in 2017 was the 4.236 at $4,441 and the 4.618 at $4,828. The corresponding level on the 2021 cycle would be $73,200 and $79,500. Quite high targets indeed…
But the kicker is the last cycle the blow off top pushed to fib level of 19.618 at $20,000. The corresponding target in the current cycle is $327,600.
Make of it what you will… we don’t have a crystal ball all we can do is look at the key levels and see how price reacts to them… might not go that high… it might go higher…
IMO play the levels as they come keep watching the 4hr trend of higher highs and higher lows… Consider risking off as we go higher.
Watch on-chain data for >1k wallets to start dumping…Tops are put in when there’s no one left to buy…. not because of selling pressure.
Don’t go all in and all out in one go, always average in and out.
And finally…
Enjoy the ride!